Tuesday, 29 March - ICTP/UniTN/UniAQ Joint International Seminar Series on Weather and Climate

[Earth System Physics Section]

*ICTP/UniTN/UniAQ Joint International Seminar Series
on Weather and Climate: From Fundamentals to Applications*

Tuesday, 29 March at 15:30

**Speaker: Francesca Di Giuseppe, ECMWF, Reading, UK

Title: *How Good are We at Predicting Fires? *
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Register in advance for this meeting:
https://zoom.us/meeting/register/tJAuce-orjIuGdY-H52Uoj03paRhzpIoIwBl

*Abstract*
The prediction of fire danger conditions allows fire management agencies 
to implement fire prevention, detection and pre-suppression action plans 
before fire damages occur. However, in many countries fire danger rating 
relies on observed weather data, which only allows for daily 
environmental monitoring of fire conditions. Even when this estimation 
is enhanced with the combined use of satellite data, such as hot spots 
for early fire detection and land cover and fuel conditions, it normally 
only provides 4 to 6 h warnings. By using forecast conditions from 
advanced numerical weather models, early warning could be extended by up 
to 1–2 weeks, allowing for greater coordination of resource-sharing and 
mobilization within and across countries.

Using 1 year of pre-operational service in 2017 and the Fire Weather 
Index (FWI), in this talk we assess the capability of the system to 
predict fire danger globally and analyse in detail three major events in 
Chile, Portugal and California. The analysis shows that the skill 
provided by an ensemble forecast system extends to more than 10 days 
when compared to the use of mean climate, making a case for extending 
the forecast range to the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale. However, 
accurate FWI prediction does not translate into accuracy in the forecast 
of fire activity globally. Indeed, when all fires detected in 2017 are 
considered, including agricultural- and human-induced burning, high FWI 
values only occur in 50 % of the cases and are limited to the Boreal 
regions. Nevertheless, for very large events which were driven by 
weather conditions, FWI forecasts provide advance warning that could be 
instrumental in setting up management and containment strategies.