Statistical Physics Seminar on Thursday, 8 march @SISSA

[Francesca Zupin]

JOINT ICTP/SISSA STATISTICAL PHYSICS SEMINAR

WITHIN THE FOODCAST PROJECT

Thursday, 8 March   -   15 hrs.

Room 139 @ SISSA Main Building, 1st floor


Davide FIASCHI     (Associate Professor in Economics, University of Pisa)


"Growth Volatility and the Structure of the Economy"

(http://www-dse.ec.unipi.it/pubblicazioni/dsedps/files/2011-117.pdf 
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<http://www-dse.ec.unipi.it/pubblicazioni/dsedps/files/2011-117.pdf>


Abstract

The aim of the lecture is twofold: i) to propose a methodology to 
compute the growth rate volatility of an economy, and ii) to investigate 
the relationship between growth volatility and economic development 
through the lenses of the structural characteristics of an economy.

We study a large cross-section of countries in the period 1970-2009, 
controlling for the stability of the estimates in two sub-periods: 
1970:1989 (Period I) and 1990:2009 (Period II). Our main findings are: 
i) the degree of trade openness has a destabilizing effect, while the 
degree of financial openness has not a significant effect; ii) the size 
of the public sector displays a U-shaped relationship with growth 
volatility, but only in Period II; iii) the level of financial 
development has a negative effect on growth volatility, but only in 
Period I.

Therefore, the dominant policy orientations in the recent decades 
contained emphasis on potential sources of instability, e.g. on the 
increase in openness and on the reduction of the size of the public sector.