ESP Seminar - Series on Environmental Meteorology - Thursday 25 February, 15:00 CET

[Earth System Physics Section]

The New Series on
Environmental Meteorology: From the Fundamentals of Climate to 
Operational Applications begins this

-- Thursday 25th Feb at 15:00 CET -- with the following online presentation:

*Angela Benedetti***(ECMWF, UK)

"THE ROLE OF AEROSOLS IN THE PREDICTABILITY AT THE SUBSEASONAL TO 
SEASONAL (S2S) SCALE"

Register in advance for this meeting:

https://zoom.us/meeting/register/tJ0lcuyurDMrEtbfP9f16GRLzqF1AiT7PHN7

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*Abstract*: Recent years have seen the rise of global operational 
atmospheric composition models for several applications including 
climate monitoring, provision of boundary conditions for regional air 
quality forecasting, and energy sector applications, to mention a few. 
Typically global forecasts are provided in the medium-range up to five 
days ahead. Thanks to a series of EU-funded projects (GEMS, MACC, 
MACC-II, MACC-III), and now Copernicus, ECMWF has developed the 
capability to run its Integrated Forecast System (IFS) with atmospheric 
composition variables. The composition configuration is at the core of 
the Copernicus Atmospheric Service (CAMS) which provides operational 
4D-Var analyses and forecasts of aerosols and reactive gases, as well as 
many other user-oriented products both at the European scale and at the 
global scale.

This capability is now being exploited for applications other than 
atmospheric composition forecasting per se. This is part of an effort to 
understand how increased complexity in the Earth System model can have 
beneficial effects on the prediction. Recent work has shown that the 
atmospheric constituents such as aerosols, ozone and other trace gases 
can be important modulators of the radiative processes at the S2S scale.
For example, the direct effect of aerosols may influence predictability 
via the MJO modulation of the aerosol fields. In clear-sky, the 
cumulative aerosol forcing can modify the radiative balance of the 
atmospheric column and introduce temperature perturbations which depend 
on the dominant aerosol types and their optical properties. Wind-emitted 
aerosols such as dust appear to be the main contributors. However, 
biomass burning aerosols may also play an important part, in particular 
for areas where extensive seasonal biomass burning takes place such as 
central Africa and Indonesia.

Several examples related to this effort will be presented. In 
particular, the experiments using the ECMWF’s coupled Ensemble 
Prediction System to investigate the role of aerosols in the 
predictability at the seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) will be discussed. 
Aerosol forecast fields at the weekly/monthly scales will also be 
presented and compared with corresponding analyses to assess their quality.

http://indico.ictp.it/event/9564/ <http://indico.ictp.it/event/9564/>