Forthcoming Mathematics Seminar

[math]

M A T H E M A T I C S   S E M I N A R S   2010

Wednesday, 22 September, at 14:30

V.I. Keilis-Borok (1,2), A.A. Soloviev (2)
(1)University of California, USA
(2)Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

"Variations of trends of indicators describing complex systems: Change 
of scaling precursory to extreme events"

Abstract:
Socio-economic and natural complex systems persistently generate extreme 
events also known as disasters, crises, or critical transitions. Here we 
analyze patterns of background activity preceding extreme events in four 
complex systems: economic recessions, surges in homicides in a megacity, 
magnetic storms and strong earthquakes. We use as a starting point the 
indicators describing the system's behavior and identify changes in an 
indicator's trend. Those changes constitute our background events (BE). 
We demonstrate a premonitory pattern common to all four systems 
considered: relatively large magnitude BEs become more frequent before 
extreme event. A premonitory change of scaling has been found in various 
models and observations. Here we demonstrate this change in scaling of 
uniformly defined BEs in four real complex systems, their enormous 
differences notwithstanding.

VENUE: Luigi Stasi Seminar Room
(ICTP Leonardo da Vinci Building, first floor)