Climate extremes and their impacts in the midst of a changing climate

Background

Regional and local-scale extreme events (such as heat waves) are expected to become more frequent over the next few decades with rising mean temperatures and increased climate variability. While climate models capture broad-scale spatial changes in climate, they are inadequate to represent extreme events on local scales. The ability to analyse extreme events at local scales is becoming more crucial to provide actionable and robust information on their impacts.

The South Asia region (consists of ~ 2 billion people) is particularly prone to heat waves due to the relatively warm climate and complex topography. For example, the fifth deadliest heatwave in recorded history affected large parts of India and Pakistan, claiming around 3500 lives in 2015. In addition, unique features of cities which contribute to the urban heat island effect can exacerbate extremes and fuel health related issues. Air pollution is increasingly becoming a health hazard shortening many lives in the region and hence becoming a major focus of public health efforts. Understanding how future climate change may exacerbate human health impacts by increasing the frequency and duration of weather conditions that enhance air pollution exposure in addition to causing thermal stress has now become critical.

Project summary

This project will focus on understanding the key processes and climatic regimes associated with extreme heatwaves over the South Asia and assess the impact on future heat wave under the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) stipulated by IPCC. Extreme events such as heat waves and associated atmospheric processes and dynamics, present significant threats to human health through combined effects of temperature, humidity, air pollution and additional hazards from increased wildfires. High-resolution regional climate models, where some of the key atmospheric processes such as land surface representation and convection are included explicitly, offer a more detailed analysis of this long-standing problem. The student will utilize these approaches to better understand processes triggering, organizing and sustaining warm blocks, particularly those associated with transient climatic regimes and hence improve the quantification of their impacts.

Objectives

• Utilise state-of-the-art climate model CMIP6/ACCMIP simulations to assess how extreme heat waves and heat stress event will change in the future;
• Assess the role of physical processes, feedback and pre-conditioning factors that influence heat wave severity and how the severity and frequency of these weather patterns will change in the future;
• Undertake high-resolution climate model simulations to examine the extent, severity and probability of heat wave episodes in the South Asia and how they will respond to future changes in emission pathways; and
• Connect the changes in extremes (heat waves) to air pollution episodes and asses the combined human health risk for the region in line with possible emission pathways.

The student will work closely with members of the Centre for Atmospheric and Climate Physics (CACP) Research, UK Met Office and ICTP, Italy. Successful candidate may have an opportunity to participate in field campaigns and present their work in international conferences. It is expected that the student will provide intellectual input into the design, implementation and analysis of the data arising from the project and develop their own research experience in the field.

Note: The position is fully funded for 3.5 years and preferably starting in January 2021. This funded PhD studentship is only open to UK/EU candidates and provides full social security coverage. EU candidates should join before 15 Dec 2020 as any later than this date will require the student to apply for a student visa before they can enter the UK. This does not apply to a student who is a UK citizen. Short-listed candidates will be contacted for remote interviews soon after the 15 November 2020.

Requirement profile

• A suitable BSc (2.1 or above) and/or Masters (e.g. if your BSc degree classification is 2.2) in a relevant subject e.g. physics, meteorology, atmospheric or climate science, mathematics, computer science or engineering;
• Experience in computational modelling e.g. in atmospheric or climate sciences;
• Knowledge of programming e.g. Python, FORTRAN;
• While the project is primarily computational, we welcome applications from candidates who also have experience in or are willing to support lab and field measurements.

Application procedure

To apply, a completed application form, along with copies of higher education certificates, transcripts, a copy of your passport and two letters of reference, should be returned (by post or email) to Lynette Spelman at the address below, by the closing date (15 November 2020). You should arrange for your referees to write separately via email to Lynette Spelman. The link to full details is given below.